Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas St Wildcats v Arizona St Sun Devils

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas St Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 46.63%2.14fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -4.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%46.77%46.83%48.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.992.002.0552.36%50.36%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit)

Prediction 53.37%1.87fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -4.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.34%53.23%53.17%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.761.771.8158.48%56.68%56.50%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas St Wildcats (Local): 46.63%; Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit): 53.37%. For Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.81, with an expected value of -3.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.41%E -2.15%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.13%E -4.10%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 17:50
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.41%E -2.15%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.13%E -4.10%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 17:50
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.41%E -2.15%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.13%E -4.10%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 15:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.41%E -2.15%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.13%E -4.10%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 22:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.41%E -2.15%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.13%E -4.10%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 22:20
FanDuel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -5.81%E -2.88%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -5.53%E -3.13%K -7.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 21:54
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.74%E -3.37%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.53%E -3.13%K -7.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 15:44
Caesars🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.74%E -3.37%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.53%E -3.13%K -7.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 17:35
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.74%E -3.37%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.53%E -3.13%K -7.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 22:34
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -8.61%E -4.39%K -8.97%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 19:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -9.08%E -4.65%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -4.46%E -2.49%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 22:00
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -9.08%E -4.65%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.13%E -4.10%K -9.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-20 21:54
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -10.94%E -5.73%K -12.02%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.34%EV -3.40%E -1.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 21:54
betPARX🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -10.94%E -5.73%K -12.02%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.34%EV -3.40%E -1.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 21:55
Bally Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -10.94%E -5.73%K -12.02%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.34%EV -3.40%E -1.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 21:55
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.24%EV -10.94%E -5.73%K -12.02%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.76%EV -8.73%E -5.11%K -12.30%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-20 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%4.8%2026-03-20 22:55