Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

James Madison Dukes v Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

James Madison Dukes (Local)

Prediction 17.53%5.70fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.324%
Kelly -0.394%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.79%17.64%17.17%19.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.275.315.6020.41%18.99%18.83%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 82.47%1.21fair odd
EV -5.16%
Edge -4.49%
Kelly -34.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.99%82.36%82.83%83.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.141.141.1589.29%87.83%87.72%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: James Madison Dukes (Local): 17.53%; Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Visit): 82.47%. For James Madison Dukes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.60, with an expected value of -1.81%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -1.81%E -0.324%K -0.394%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -6.81%E -6.03%K -52.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 21:14
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.57%E -0.648%K -0.793%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 23:45
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.57%E -0.648%K -0.793%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 02:05
888sport (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.57%E -0.648%K -0.793%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 02:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.57%E -0.648%K -0.793%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 02:10
theScore Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.57%E -0.648%K -0.793%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.64%E -6.82%K -63.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-08 03:59
1xBet🎯5.37I 18.62%NM 17.38%EV -5.85%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.62%EV -6.81%E -6.03%K -52.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 15:45
Bovada🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.95%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 21:07
DraftKings🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.83%E -1.70%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.16%E -4.49%K -34.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 23:35
MyBookie.ag🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -10.58%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 21:19
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.33%E -2.47%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.64%E -6.82%K -63.64%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:19
BetRivers🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -14.09%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -5.16%E -4.49%K -34.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 21:14
Bally Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -14.09%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -5.16%E -4.49%K -34.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 21:14
betPARX🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -14.09%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -5.16%E -4.49%K -34.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 21:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig5.35I 18.69%NM 15.88%1.01I 99.01%NM 84.12%17.7%2026-05-08 21:19