Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacksonville St Gamecocks v Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacksonville St Gamecocks (Local)

Prediction 57.84%1.73fair odd
EV -4.57%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -7.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.96%57.78%58.14%58.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.621.621.6562.89%61.76%61.73%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Visit)

Prediction 42.16%2.37fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.75%42.22%41.86%43.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.212.212.2646.51%45.16%45.15%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jacksonville St Gamecocks (Local): 57.84%; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Visit): 42.16%. For Jacksonville St Gamecocks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.65, with an expected value of -4.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.57%E -2.77%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 02:30
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.57%E -2.77%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 03:00
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -5.15%E -3.14%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.50%E -3.92%K -7.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 13:25
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -6.31%E -3.89%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -4.71%E -2.08%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 15:39
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.89%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 15:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.89%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 15:37
MyBookie.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.31%E -3.89%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 15:43
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.31%E -3.89%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 03:40
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -7.46%E -4.66%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 15:39
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -7.46%E -4.66%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 15:39
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -7.46%E -4.66%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 15:39
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.49%EV -8.04%E -5.06%K -13.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%5.2%2026-03-21 18:30