Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Illinois Fighting Illini v Oregon Ducks

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Illinois Fighting Illini (Local)

Prediction 34.63%2.89fair odd
EV +0.429%
Edge +0.148%
Kelly +0.226%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.24%34.76%34.70%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.702.702.9040.00%37.03%37.04%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oregon Ducks (Visit)

Prediction 65.37%1.53fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -3.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%65.24%65.30%67.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.431.421.5072.46%69.97%70.42%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Illinois Fighting Illini (Local): 34.63%; Oregon Ducks (Visit): 65.37%. For Illinois Fighting Illini (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.429%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +0.429%E +0.148%K +0.226%G +0.001%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.48%E -6.06%K -21.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 16:38
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV +0.429%E +0.148%K +0.226%G +0.001%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -9.79%E -7.09%K -25.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 16:23
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.18%E -5.05%K -17.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 16:24
MyBookie.ag🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.57%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.43%EV -7.83%E -5.55%K -19.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 16:42
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -9.79%E -7.09%K -25.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-17 16:30
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.21%E -3.60%K -11.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-17 14:49
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.18%E -5.05%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 16:24
Bally Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.18%E -5.05%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 16:24
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.18%E -5.05%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 16:25
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.87%E -4.08%K -13.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 16:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.87%E -4.08%K -13.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 16:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.87%E -4.08%K -13.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 16:34
1xBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.25%EV -13.08%E -5.21%K -8.66%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.75%EV -2.60%E -1.74%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 16:49
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -13.42%E -5.37%K -8.95%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -1.95%E -1.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 16:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.92I 34.25%NM 25.51%1.00I 100.00%NM 74.49%34.2%2026-04-17 16:39