The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Illinois Fighting Illini v Illinois St Redbirds

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Illinois Fighting Illini (Local)

Prediction 71.16%1.41fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -3.47%
Kelly -13.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.47%71.46%70.64%73.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.321.321.3477.52%76.05%75.76%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illinois St Redbirds (Visit)

Prediction 28.84%3.47fair odd
EV +2.40%
Edge +0.676%
Kelly +0.941%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.65%28.54%29.36%29.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.263.233.5531.75%30.66%31.01%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Illinois Fighting Illini (Local): 71.16%; Illinois St Redbirds (Visit): 28.84%. For Illinois St Redbirds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -8.21%E -6.36%K -28.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV +2.40%E +0.676%K +0.941%G +0.023%5.7%2026-04-21 16:10
theScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.50%E -5.77%K -24.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -1.93%E -0.567%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-21 16:15
MyBookie.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -7.50%E -5.77%K -24.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -4.81%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 17:09
1xBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.40%EV -6.79%E -5.18%K -21.89%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.60%EV -5.68%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 16:30
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.08%E -4.60%K -18.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 00:23
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.65%E -3.47%K -13.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.70%E -2.41%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-20 23:15
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.36%E -4.03%K -16.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.70%E -2.41%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 01:49
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.08%E -4.60%K -18.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.14%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 16:30
Bally Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.08%E -4.60%K -18.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.14%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 16:30
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.08%E -4.60%K -18.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.14%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.32I 75.76%NM 72.50%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.50%4.5%2026-04-21 22:54