Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Cougars v Texas Longhorns

Kickoff: 2026-03-24 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

21%

79%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Cougars (Local)

Prediction 20.53%4.87fair odd

EV +2.64%

Edge +0.529%

Kelly +0.661%

Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.83%20.61%20.77%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.954.444.505.0025.32%22.53%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas Longhorns (Visit)

Prediction 79.47%1.26fair odd

EV -4.63%

Edge -3.86%

Kelly -23.17%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.85%79.39%79.23%81.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.151.191.191.2086.96%84.29%84.03%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Houston Cougars (Local): 20.53%; Texas Longhorns (Visit): 79.47%. For Houston Cougars (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.87. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +2.64%E +0.529%K +0.661%G +0.017%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.22%E -5.27%K -34.58%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-24 17:03
BetMGM🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +2.64%E +0.529%K +0.661%G +0.017%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -7.81%E -6.74%K -48.84%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-24 15:28
theScore Bet🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -1.46%E -0.304%K -0.384%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -8.61%E -7.49%K -57.39%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-24 21:04
DraftKings🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -3.51%E -0.748%K -0.950%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.22%E -5.27%K -34.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-24 02:04
LowVig.ag🎯	4.54I 22.03%NM 20.77%EV -6.80%E -1.50%K -1.92%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.23%EV -5.43%E -4.56%K -28.58%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-24 18:30
BetOnline.ag🎯	4.54I 22.03%NM 20.77%EV -6.80%E -1.50%K -1.92%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.23%EV -5.43%E -4.56%K -28.58%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-24 18:30
888sport🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.63%E -3.86%K -23.17%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-24 21:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.63%E -3.86%K -23.17%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-24 21:04
888sport (SE)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.63%E -3.86%K -23.17%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-24 21:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.63%E -3.86%K -23.17%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-24 21:03
1xBet🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.22%E -5.27%K -34.58%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-24 23:10
FanDuel🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.63%E -3.86%K -23.17%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-24 21:04
MyBookie.ag🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.22%E -5.27%K -34.58%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-24 21:09
BetUS🎯	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -10.70%E -2.46%K -3.19%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -5.43%E -4.56%K -28.58%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-24 18:30
Betway🎯	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -12.75%E -3.00%K -3.92%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.27%EV -6.22%E -5.27%K -34.58%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-03-24 21:04
Fliff🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -17.88%E -4.47%K -5.96%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -5.43%E -4.56%K -28.58%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-03-24 21:15
BetRivers🎯	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.15%EV -18.91%E -4.79%K -6.41%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 76.85%EV -5.43%E -4.56%K -28.58%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-24 20:55
Bally Bet🎯	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.15%EV -18.91%E -4.79%K -6.41%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 76.85%EV -5.43%E -4.56%K -28.58%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-24 20:55
betPARX🎯	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.15%EV -18.91%E -4.79%K -6.41%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 76.85%EV -5.43%E -4.56%K -28.58%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-24 20:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	4.78I 20.92%NM 19.93%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.07%	5.0%	2026-03-24 23:09