Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Cougars v Arizona St Sun Devils

Kickoff: 2026-05-15 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

23%

77%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Cougars (Local)

Prediction 23.23%4.30fair odd

EV +17.08%

Edge +3.39%

Kelly +4.23%

Growth +0.722%

assuming max odds 5.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.71%22.91%23.08%24.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.754.184.055.0426.67%23.91%24.69%19.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit)

Prediction 76.77%1.30fair odd

EV -4.04%

Edge -3.23%

Kelly -16.15%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

75.15%77.09%76.92%81.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.161.211.221.2586.21%82.38%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Houston Cougars (Local): 23.23%; Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit): 76.77%. For Houston Cougars (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	5.04I 19.84%NM 18.71%EV +17.08%E +3.39%K +4.23%G +0.722%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.29%EV -10.95%E -9.44%K -68.42%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-15 22:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	5.04I 19.84%NM 18.71%EV +17.08%E +3.39%K +4.23%G +0.722%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.29%EV -10.95%E -9.44%K -68.42%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-15 22:05
BetUS🎯	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV +12.67%E +2.61%K +3.29%G +0.417%	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.70%EV -10.95%E -9.44%K -68.42%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-15 22:09
1xBet🎯	4.64I 21.55%NM 20.55%EV +7.79%E +1.68%K +2.14%G +0.167%	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.45%EV -7.88%E -6.56%K -39.38%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-05-15 22:20
Caesars🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +2.21%E +0.503%K +0.651%G +0.014%	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -6.34%E -5.20%K -28.82%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-15 22:15
theScore Bet🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -2.43%E -0.579%K -0.761%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.88%E -6.56%K -39.38%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-15 22:10
MyBookie.ag🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.76%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.57%E -4.53%K -24.23%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-05-15 22:09
FanDuel🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.76%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.57%E -4.53%K -24.23%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-05-15 22:10
BetMGM🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.76%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.34%E -5.20%K -28.82%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-15 19:35
888sport🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.34%E -5.20%K -28.82%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-15 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.34%E -5.20%K -28.82%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-15 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.34%E -5.20%K -28.82%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-15 17:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.34%E -5.20%K -28.82%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-15 22:09
DraftKings🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.73%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.04%E -3.23%K -16.15%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-15 15:10
BetRivers🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -4.81%E -3.88%K -20.02%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-05-15 17:10
Bally Bet🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -4.81%E -3.88%K -20.02%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-05-15 17:10
betPARX🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -4.81%E -3.88%K -20.02%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-05-15 17:10
Betway🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.34%E -5.20%K -28.82%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-15 22:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.00I 50.00%NM 35.48%	1.10I 90.91%NM 64.52%	40.9%	2026-05-15 21:25