Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors v Ball State Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 04:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

71%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (Local)

Prediction 70.50%1.42fair odd

EV -1.29%

Edge -0.924%

Kelly -3.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.44%70.40%70.48%73.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.281.321.321.4078.13%75.95%75.76%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ball State Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 29.50%3.39fair odd

EV +3.24%

Edge +0.924%

Kelly +1.29%

Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.93%29.60%29.52%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.903.173.253.5034.48%31.57%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (Local): 70.50%; Ball State Cardinals (Visit): 29.50%. For Ball State Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -9.05%E -7.02%K -31.21%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +3.24%E +0.924%K +1.29%G +0.042%	6.1%	2026-02-28 00:00
Bovada🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.93%E -5.25%K -21.67%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.14%E -1.27%K -1.84%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-02-28 04:24
BetRivers🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -9.75%E -7.62%K -34.84%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -4.14%E -1.27%K -1.84%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-02-27 23:59
betPARX🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -9.75%E -7.62%K -34.84%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -4.14%E -1.27%K -1.84%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-02-27 23:59
Bally Bet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -9.75%E -7.62%K -34.84%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -4.14%E -1.27%K -1.84%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-02-27 23:59
DraftKings🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.52%E -4.12%K -16.25%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -5.61%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-02-27 19:59
Betway🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.23%E -4.68%K -18.88%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -11.51%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-02-27 21:29
1xBet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 68.63%EV -6.23%E -4.68%K -18.88%G +0.000%	2.91I 34.36%NM 31.37%EV -14.17%E -4.87%K -7.42%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-02-28 01:04
BetMGM🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -1.29%E -0.924%K -3.24%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -14.46%E -4.99%K -7.61%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-02-27 17:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.