Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgia St Panthers v Arkansas St Red Wolves

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgia St Panthers (Local)

Prediction 31.54%3.17fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.715%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.80%31.58%31.51%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.973.003.1035.09%33.68%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arkansas St Red Wolves (Visit)

Prediction 68.46%1.46fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -2.97%
Kelly -10.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.44%68.42%68.49%69.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.371.4075.19%73.03%72.99%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Georgia St Panthers (Local): 31.54%; Arkansas St Red Wolves (Visit): 68.46%. For Georgia St Panthers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -2.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.22%E -0.715%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 12:05
LowVig.ag🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -4.74%E -1.57%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -6.21%E -4.54%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 12:29
BetOnline.ag🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -4.74%E -1.57%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -6.21%E -4.54%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 12:29
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.37%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 14:54
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.37%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 14:55
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.37%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-22 14:52
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.37%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-22 15:24
BetUS🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.95%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.21%E -4.54%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-22 12:54
MyBookie.ag🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.86%EV -7.58%E -2.59%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.14%EV -6.21%E -4.54%K -16.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 15:33
1xBet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.86%EV -7.58%E -2.59%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.14%EV -6.21%E -4.54%K -16.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 15:09
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 14:54
Fliff🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%EV -8.95%E -6.73%K -27.13%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-22 15:30
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -10.10%E -3.54%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 15:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig3.01I 33.22%NM 31.59%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%5.2%2026-03-22 16:49