Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgia Bulldogs v Missouri Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 16:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Georgia Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 81.20%1.23fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -3.54%
Kelly -23.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.54%81.30%81.17%82.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.161.161.1887.72%86.16%86.21%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Missouri Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 18.80%5.32fair odd
EV -0.368%
Edge -0.069%
Kelly -0.086%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.83%18.70%18.83%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.005.005.3020.83%20.02%20.00%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Georgia Bulldogs (Local): 81.20%; Missouri Tigers (Visit): 18.80%. For Missouri Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.30, with an expected value of -0.368%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.18%E -3.54%K -23.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.01%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 15:56
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.99%E -4.27%K -29.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.01%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 15:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.99%E -4.27%K -29.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.01%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 15:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.99%E -4.27%K -29.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.01%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 15:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.99%E -4.27%K -29.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.01%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 16:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.20%EV -5.81%E -5.01%K -36.29%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 18.80%EV -5.82%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 16:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.20%EV -5.81%E -5.01%K -36.29%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 18.80%EV -5.82%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:59
DraftKings🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.81%E -5.01%K -36.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.01%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 16:00
BetMGM🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.81%E -5.01%K -36.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.01%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:59
1xBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.89%EV -5.81%E -5.01%K -36.29%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.11%EV -7.70%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 15:59
BetUS🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.81%E -5.01%K -36.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -9.77%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 16:00
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -6.62%E -5.76%K -44.12%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -0.368%E -0.069%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 16:00
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.62%E -5.76%K -44.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -6.01%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 15:58
MyBookie.ag🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -6.62%E -5.76%K -44.12%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -7.89%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 15:58
theScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.43%E -6.52%K -53.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.01%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.15I 86.96%NM 82.60%5.46I 18.32%NM 17.40%5.3%2026-05-03 15:58