Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fresno St Bulldogs v CSU Northridge Matadors

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fresno St Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 57.65%1.73fair odd
EV +1.47%
Edge +0.835%
Kelly +1.93%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.82%57.32%58.14%60.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.661.621.7662.89%60.42%61.73%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CSU Northridge Matadors (Visit)

Prediction 42.35%2.36fair odd
EV +1.63%
Edge +0.681%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.85%42.68%41.86%47.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.172.192.4050.76%46.08%45.66%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fresno St Bulldogs (Local): 57.65%; CSU Northridge Matadors (Visit): 42.35%. For CSU Northridge Matadors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV +1.47%E +0.835%K +1.93%G +0.028%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -16.58%E -8.41%K -17.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-17 18:50
Bally Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV +1.47%E +0.835%K +1.93%G +0.028%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -16.58%E -8.41%K -17.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-17 18:50
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV +1.47%E +0.835%K +1.93%G +0.028%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -16.58%E -8.41%K -17.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-17 18:50
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -3.72%E -2.23%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -7.68%E -3.52%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-17 19:00
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -3.72%E -2.23%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-17 21:00
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.60%E -4.08%K -10.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.72%E -2.10%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 00:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.60%E -4.08%K -10.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.84%E -3.11%K -5.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 20:19
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -7.18%E -4.46%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -2.60%E -1.13%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-17 18:35
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -7.18%E -4.46%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -4.72%E -2.10%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-17 17:23
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -2.60%E -1.13%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-16 23:04
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -8.33%E -5.24%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV +1.63%E +0.681%K +1.17%G +0.019%4.6%2026-03-18 00:19
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.49%EV -8.33%E -5.24%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-17 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.