Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Florida Gators v Kentucky Wildcats

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 01:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Florida Gators (Local)

Prediction 72.33%1.38fair odd

EV -4.53%

Edge -3.43%

Kelly -14.15%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.95%72.29%72.33%73.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.291.291.3278.74%77.59%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kentucky Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 27.67%3.61fair odd

EV -3.15%

Edge -0.899%

Kelly -1.26%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.91%27.71%27.67%29.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.203.373.423.5031.25%29.65%29.28%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Florida Gators (Local): 72.33%; Kentucky Wildcats (Visit): 27.67%. For Kentucky Wildcats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -3.15%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.53%E -3.43%K -14.15%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-09 00:28
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -5.25%E -4.01%K -16.94%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -11.45%E -3.58%K -5.20%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-09 00:44
FanDuel🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.70%E -5.19%K -23.10%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.15%E -0.899%K -1.26%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-09 00:49
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -6.70%E -5.19%K -23.10%G +0.000%	3.38I 29.59%NM 27.62%EV -6.47%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-09 01:23
Betway🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.70%E -5.19%K -23.10%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -10.06%E -3.10%K -4.47%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-09 01:19
BetRivers🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -8.14%E -6.41%K -30.16%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -4.53%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-09 00:29
Bally Bet🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -8.14%E -6.41%K -30.16%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -4.53%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-09 00:29
betPARX🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -8.14%E -6.41%K -30.16%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -4.53%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-09 00:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.