Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Florida Gators v Kentucky Wildcats

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 00:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

69%

31%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Florida Gators (Local)

Prediction 68.56%1.46fair odd

EV -2.64%

Edge -1.86%

Kelly -6.30%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.35%68.56%68.56%70.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.361.331.4275.19%73.53%75.19%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kentucky Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 31.44%3.18fair odd

EV +1.24%

Edge +0.384%

Kelly +0.557%

Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.23%31.44%31.44%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.803.083.223.2235.71%32.47%31.06%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Florida Gators (Local): 68.56%; Kentucky Wildcats (Visit): 31.44%. For Kentucky Wildcats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV -8.82%E -6.63%K -26.71%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 29.23%EV +1.24%E +0.384%K +0.557%G +0.007%	6.2%	2026-05-09 23:59
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV -8.82%E -6.63%K -26.71%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 29.23%EV +1.24%E +0.384%K +0.557%G +0.007%	6.2%	2026-05-09 23:59
DraftKings🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -2.64%E -1.86%K -6.30%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -11.97%E -4.27%K -6.65%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-09 23:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.