Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Carolina Pirates v UAB Blazers

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Carolina Pirates (Local)

Prediction 70.43%1.42fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -3.10%
Kelly -11.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.66%70.27%70.48%71.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.341.341.3675.76%74.88%74.63%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UAB Blazers (Visit)

Prediction 29.57%3.38fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.88%29.73%29.52%31.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.103.143.2533.90%32.24%31.85%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: East Carolina Pirates (Local): 70.43%; UAB Blazers (Visit): 29.57%. For UAB Blazers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -3.89%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -4.22%E -3.10%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.34%EV -11.87%E -3.98%K -6.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 21:55
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.63%E -4.20%K -16.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 05:45
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -5.63%E -4.20%K -16.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.84%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 11:28
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -5.63%E -4.20%K -16.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 21:48
Bally Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -5.63%E -4.20%K -16.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 21:48
betPARX🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -5.63%E -4.20%K -16.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 21:48
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.33%E -4.76%K -19.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -3.89%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 13:00
theScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.33%E -4.76%K -19.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 14:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.25%EV -6.33%E -4.76%K -19.19%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV -7.14%E -2.27%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 11:39
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -7.04%E -5.33%K -21.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -3.89%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 07:03
Fliff🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -7.04%E -5.33%K -21.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -12.76%E -4.33%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-20 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.34I 74.63%NM 70.87%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.13%5.3%2026-03-20 21:15