Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Carolina Pirates v Rice Owls

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

76%

24%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Carolina Pirates (Local)

Prediction 76.39%1.31fair odd

EV -4.51%

Edge -3.61%

Kelly -18.04%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

74.75%76.50%76.34%78.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.191.221.221.2584.03%81.87%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rice Owls (Visit)

Prediction 23.61%4.24fair odd

EV +1.99%

Edge +0.460%

Kelly +0.599%

Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 4.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.60%23.50%23.66%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.704.034.004.3227.03%24.84%25.00%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: East Carolina Pirates (Local): 76.39%; Rice Owls (Visit): 23.61%. For Rice Owls (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.24. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -9.09%E -7.64%K -47.86%G +0.000%	4.32I 23.15%NM 21.60%EV +1.99%E +0.460%K +0.599%G +0.012%	7.2%	2026-05-09 19:39
BetRivers🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -9.09%E -7.64%K -47.86%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV +0.335%E +0.079%K +0.103%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-09 19:49
Bally Bet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -9.09%E -7.64%K -47.86%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV +0.335%E +0.079%K +0.103%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-09 19:49
betPARX🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -9.09%E -7.64%K -47.86%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV +0.335%E +0.079%K +0.103%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-09 19:48
BetMGM🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.80%E -5.58%K -30.92%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.21%E -0.782%K -1.03%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-09 14:19
Caesars🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.04%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-09 16:17
DraftKings🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.27%E -4.25%K -21.98%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-09 03:54
Bovada🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.80%E -5.58%K -30.92%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 05:35
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.80%E -5.58%K -30.92%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 18:03
Betway🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.33%E -6.94%K -41.65%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-09 15:24
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.04%G +0.000%	3.84I 26.04%NM 24.56%EV -9.34%E -2.43%K -3.29%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-09 15:29
LowVig.ag🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.04%G +0.000%	3.84I 26.04%NM 24.56%EV -9.34%E -2.43%K -3.29%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-09 15:29
theScore Bet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.27%E -4.25%K -21.98%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 17:14
BetUS🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.04%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.69%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 17:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 80.20%	4.05I 24.69%NM 19.80%	24.7%	2026-05-09 19:49