Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Carolina Pirates v Elon Phoenix

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Carolina Pirates (Local)

Prediction 77.29%1.29fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -3.36%
Kelly -17.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.88%77.23%77.49%78.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.211.211.2484.03%82.59%82.64%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elon Phoenix (Visit)

Prediction 22.71%4.40fair odd
EV -0.076%
Edge -0.017%
Kelly -0.022%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.71%22.77%22.51%24.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.104.104.4025.64%24.40%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: East Carolina Pirates (Local): 77.29%; Elon Phoenix (Visit): 22.71%. For Elon Phoenix (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.403. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.400, with an expected value of -0.076%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.16%E -3.36%K -17.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -9.16%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-16 22:35
BetMGM🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -4.16%E -3.36%K -17.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -11.43%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:40
Bovada🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -4.93%E -4.01%K -21.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -11.43%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-17 13:15
Caesars🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.71%E -4.68%K -25.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -0.076%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-17 16:15
FanDuel🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.71%E -4.68%K -25.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.62%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-17 18:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.48%E -5.35%K -30.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -6.89%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-17 18:25
1xBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.13%EV -6.48%E -5.35%K -30.85%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 22.87%EV -7.34%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 16:10
theScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.25%E -6.04%K -36.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.62%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-17 18:20
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.25%E -6.04%K -36.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.16%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-17 18:20
Fliff🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -7.25%E -6.04%K -36.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.43%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-17 18:20
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -8.02%E -6.74%K -42.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -4.62%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-17 18:15
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -8.02%E -6.74%K -42.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -4.62%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-17 18:15
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -8.02%E -6.74%K -42.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -4.62%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-17 18:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.22I 81.97%NM 77.74%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.26%5.4%2026-03-17 19:40