Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Carolina Pirates v Charlotte 49ers

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Carolina Pirates (Local)

Prediction 62.85%1.59fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -7.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%63.02%62.66%64.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.491.501.5368.97%67.08%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Charlotte 49ers (Visit)

Prediction 37.15%2.69fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.725%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.77%36.98%37.34%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.542.502.6440.32%39.39%40.00%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: East Carolina Pirates (Local): 62.85%; Charlotte 49ers (Visit): 37.15%. For Charlotte 49ers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.64, with an expected value of -1.91%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.85%E -2.51%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.26%E -2.06%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-04 14:19
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.85%E -2.51%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.11%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 02:15
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.10%E -3.38%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -7.11%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 01:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.10%E -3.38%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -7.11%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 15:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.10%E -3.38%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -7.11%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 15:04
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.73%E -3.82%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.11%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 04:35
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.73%E -3.82%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.11%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 16:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -5.73%E -3.82%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -7.86%E -3.17%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 16:49
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.75%EV -6.36%E -4.27%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.25%EV -6.74%E -2.69%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 16:19
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.99%E -4.72%K -14.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.40%E -1.31%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 15:09
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.99%E -4.72%K -14.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.11%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 13:39
FanDuel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%EV -7.62%E -5.18%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -1.91%E -0.725%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 15:09
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -8.87%E -6.12%K -19.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.40%E -1.31%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 16:19
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -8.87%E -6.12%K -19.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.40%E -1.31%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 16:19
Bally Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -8.87%E -6.12%K -19.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.40%E -1.31%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 16:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.57I 63.69%NM 62.44%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.56%2.0%2026-04-04 16:39