The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Duke Blue Devils v Louisville Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Duke Blue Devils (Local)

Prediction 46.07%2.17fair odd
EV -0.943%
Edge -0.438%
Kelly -0.820%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.72%45.95%46.00%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.032.012.1550.00%49.25%49.63%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 53.93%1.85fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -5.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%54.05%54.00%56.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.741.7759.88%57.51%57.47%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Duke Blue Devils (Local): 46.07%; Louisville Cardinals (Visit): 53.93%. For Duke Blue Devils (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -0.943%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -0.943%E -0.438%K -0.820%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -9.94%E -5.95%K -14.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 15:50
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.55%E -2.71%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.17%E -3.54%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 00:44
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.55%E -2.71%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.17%E -3.54%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 04:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.55%E -2.71%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.17%E -3.54%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 14:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.55%E -2.71%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.17%E -3.54%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 14:34
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.55%E -2.71%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.17%E -3.54%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 14:34
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.55%E -2.71%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.17%E -3.54%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 14:19
FanDuel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -6.93%E -3.43%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 15:54
1xBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.54%EV -7.39%E -3.68%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 15:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.54%EV -7.39%E -3.68%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 15:55
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.85%E -3.93%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 15:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.85%E -3.93%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 15:49
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.85%E -3.93%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.71%E -3.88%K -9.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 15:54
Bally Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.85%E -3.93%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.71%E -3.88%K -9.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 15:54
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.85%E -3.93%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.71%E -3.88%K -9.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 15:54
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.85%E -3.93%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.79%E -4.55%K -10.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%5.1%2026-04-04 15:50