Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Duke Blue Devils v Louisville Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

46%

54%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Duke Blue Devils (Local)

Prediction 45.93%2.18fair odd

EV +3.33%

Edge +1.48%

Kelly +2.67%

Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.86%45.38%45.91%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.082.052.2550.00%47.97%48.78%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 54.07%1.85fair odd

EV -4.29%

Edge -2.42%

Kelly -5.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.05%54.62%54.09%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.621.711.741.7761.73%58.55%57.47%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Duke Blue Devils (Local): 45.93%; Louisville Cardinals (Visit): 54.07%. For Duke Blue Devils (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +3.33%E +1.48%K +2.67%G +0.089%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -12.40%E -7.65%K -20.00%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-02 23:20
LowVig.ag🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +3.33%E +1.48%K +2.67%G +0.089%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -12.40%E -7.65%K -20.00%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-02 23:19
BetUS🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +3.33%E +1.48%K +2.67%G +0.089%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -12.40%E -7.65%K -20.00%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-02 23:20
Caesars🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -1.26%E -0.586%K -1.10%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -8.61%E -5.10%K -12.48%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-04-02 21:55
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.13I 46.95%NM 43.95%EV -2.18%E -1.02%K -1.93%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.05%EV -9.70%E -5.81%K -14.47%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-02 21:59
FanDuel🎯	2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -5.39%E -2.62%K -5.09%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -5.91%E -3.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-02 21:59
DraftKings🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.85%E -2.86%K -5.57%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.91%E -3.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-02 17:05
Bovada🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.85%E -2.86%K -5.57%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.91%E -3.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-02 17:07
theScore Bet🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.85%E -2.86%K -5.57%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.91%E -3.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-02 22:44
1xBet🎯	2.03I 49.26%NM 46.15%EV -6.77%E -3.34%K -6.57%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.85%EV -5.91%E -3.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-02 22:05
BetMGM🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.15%E -4.07%K -8.15%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.29%E -2.42%K -5.57%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-04-02 16:20
BetRivers🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -8.15%E -4.07%K -8.15%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -5.91%E -3.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-02 16:50
betPARX🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -8.15%E -4.07%K -8.15%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -5.91%E -3.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-02 16:49
Bally Bet🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -8.15%E -4.07%K -8.15%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -5.91%E -3.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-02 16:50
Betway🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.15%E -4.07%K -8.15%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.53%E -4.40%K -10.61%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-04-02 23:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%	5.2%	2026-04-02 23:00