Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Duke Blue Devils v East Carolina Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-03-24 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Duke Blue Devils (Local)

Prediction 46.37%2.16fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -4.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%46.62%46.31%48.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.002.022.0552.91%50.06%49.50%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

East Carolina Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 53.63%1.86fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -5.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.50%53.38%53.69%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.751.741.7858.48%57.14%57.47%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Duke Blue Devils (Local): 46.37%; East Carolina Pirates (Visit): 53.63%. For East Carolina Pirates (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.78, with an expected value of -4.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.95%E -2.41%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.68%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-24 00:24
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.95%E -2.41%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.68%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-24 00:34
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.95%E -2.41%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.68%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-24 07:40
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.95%E -2.41%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.68%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-24 09:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.95%E -2.41%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.68%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-24 13:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.95%E -2.41%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.68%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-24 13:04
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.95%E -2.41%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.68%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-24 13:20
FanDuel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -6.34%E -3.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -5.07%E -2.87%K -6.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-24 15:34
MyBookie.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.28%EV -6.34%E -3.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -6.68%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-24 18:48
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.07%E -2.87%K -6.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-24 13:59
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.26%E -3.63%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.14%E -3.51%K -8.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-24 17:14
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -9.58%E -4.91%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -6.68%E -3.84%K -9.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-24 15:34
Fliff🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -9.58%E -4.91%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -8.29%E -4.85%K -11.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-24 15:35
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.50%EV -12.36%E -6.54%K -13.89%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.50%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-24 15:30
betPARX🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.50%EV -12.36%E -6.54%K -13.89%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.50%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-24 15:29
Bally Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.50%EV -12.36%E -6.54%K -13.89%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.50%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-24 15:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%3.2%2026-03-24 19:54