Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSU Fullerton Titans v Cal Poly Mustangs

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 01:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSU Fullerton Titans (Local)

Prediction 48.47%2.06fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -4.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.62%48.54%48.47%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.911.911.9853.48%52.31%52.36%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 51.53%1.94fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -4.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.46%51.53%52.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.831.831.8755.56%54.67%54.64%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSU Fullerton Titans (Local): 48.47%; Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit): 51.53%. For Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.87, with an expected value of -3.63%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -4.04%E -2.04%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -7.24%E -4.02%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 00:09
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.49%E -2.82%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.24%E -4.02%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:39
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.49%E -2.82%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.24%E -4.02%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 17:24
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.49%E -2.82%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.24%E -4.02%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.43%E -3.89%K -8.17%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.69%E -3.11%K -6.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 17:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.43%E -3.89%K -8.17%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.69%E -3.11%K -6.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 17:19
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.43%E -3.89%K -8.17%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.69%E -3.11%K -6.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 17:19
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.43%E -3.89%K -8.17%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.69%E -3.11%K -6.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 20:29
MyBookie.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -7.92%E -4.17%K -8.80%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -5.18%E -2.81%K -6.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 00:14
1xBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.37%E -5.01%K -10.77%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.63%E -1.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 15:04
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -9.37%E -5.01%K -10.77%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV -4.66%E -2.52%K -5.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-08 21:19
Bally Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -9.37%E -5.01%K -10.77%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV -4.66%E -2.52%K -5.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-08 21:19
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -9.37%E -5.01%K -10.77%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV -4.66%E -2.52%K -5.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-08 21:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%6.5%2026-05-09 01:24