Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners v UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 01:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

25%

75%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners (Local)

Prediction 25.08%3.99fair odd

EV +17.12%

Edge +3.66%

Kelly +4.66%

Growth +0.798%

assuming max odds 4.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.03%25.08%25.08%25.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.653.923.804.6727.40%25.48%26.32%21.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit)

Prediction 74.92%1.33fair odd

EV -4.85%

Edge -3.82%

Kelly -17.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

74.34%74.92%74.92%79.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.171.241.241.2785.47%80.91%80.65%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners (Local): 25.08%; UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit): 74.92%. For CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.67, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	4.67I 21.41%NM 20.03%EV +17.12%E +3.66%K +4.66%G +0.798%	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.97%EV -12.34%E -10.55%K -72.60%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-02 23:15
Bovada🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -7.10%E -5.72%K -29.57%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-02 14:31
theScore Bet🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -7.10%E -5.72%K -29.57%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-02 22:55
DraftKings🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.21%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.85%E -3.82%K -17.96%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-02 04:10
MyBookie.ag🎯	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.46%E -2.32%K -3.19%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-02 22:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.