Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cincinnati Bearcats v Utah Utes

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cincinnati Bearcats (Local)

Prediction 68.92%1.45fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -8.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.53%69.03%68.81%70.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.361.361.4075.19%73.57%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Utah Utes (Visit)

Prediction 31.08%3.22fair odd
EV -0.546%
Edge -0.171%
Kelly -0.248%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.52%30.97%31.19%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.873.013.003.2034.84%33.19%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cincinnati Bearcats (Local): 68.92%; Utah Utes (Visit): 31.08%. For Utah Utes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -0.546%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.51%E -2.51%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.76%E -2.25%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 08:54
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.89%E -3.54%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.32%E -2.82%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 02:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.89%E -3.54%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.32%E -2.82%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 14:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.89%E -3.54%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.32%E -2.82%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 14:19
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.89%E -3.54%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.87%E -3.40%K -5.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 03:40
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.53%EV -4.89%E -3.54%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.47%EV -10.80%E -3.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 14:29
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.27%E -4.61%K -17.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.65%E -1.18%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 13:35
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.27%E -4.61%K -17.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.76%E -2.25%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 15:19
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.27%E -4.61%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.34%EV -7.38%E -2.48%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 09:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.25%EV -6.96%E -5.15%K -19.88%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.75%EV -5.52%E -1.82%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 17:23
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -7.65%E -5.71%K -22.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -0.546%E -0.171%K -0.248%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-21 13:35
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -8.34%E -6.27%K -25.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -3.65%E -1.18%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:34
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -8.34%E -6.27%K -25.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -3.65%E -1.18%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:35
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -8.34%E -6.27%K -25.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -3.65%E -1.18%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:39
Fliff🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.93%EV -8.34%E -6.27%K -25.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.32%E -2.82%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-21 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.37I 72.99%NM 70.66%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.34%3.3%2026-03-21 18:04