Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cincinnati Bearcats v UC San Diego Tritons

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cincinnati Bearcats (Local)

Prediction 75.91%1.32fair odd
EV -5.12%
Edge -4.09%
Kelly -20.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.75%76.03%75.88%77.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.231.231.2582.64%81.21%81.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC San Diego Tritons (Visit)

Prediction 24.09%4.15fair odd
EV +0.716%
Edge +0.171%
Kelly +0.225%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.59%23.97%24.12%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.883.804.1827.03%25.74%26.32%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cincinnati Bearcats (Local): 75.91%; UC San Diego Tritons (Visit): 24.09%. For UC San Diego Tritons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.15. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.716%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.41%EV -7.40%E -6.06%K -33.62%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.59%EV +0.716%E +0.171%K +0.225%G +0.002%5.9%2026-03-08 15:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.41%EV -7.40%E -6.06%K -33.62%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.59%EV +0.716%E +0.171%K +0.225%G +0.002%5.9%2026-03-08 15:55
BetUS🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.40%E -6.06%K -33.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.62%E -0.905%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 15:54
theScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -8.15%E -6.74%K -38.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -3.62%E -0.905%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 16:25
BetMGM🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.88%E -4.74%K -24.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 14:18
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.88%E -4.74%K -24.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 14:30
DraftKings🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.12%E -4.09%K -20.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 15:54
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.88%E -4.74%K -24.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 15:53
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.64%E -5.40%K -28.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 15:59
betPARX🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.64%E -5.40%K -28.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 15:59
Bally Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.64%E -5.40%K -28.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 15:59
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.30%EV -5.88%E -4.74%K -24.49%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.70%EV -8.92%E -2.36%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 16:19
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.40%E -6.06%K -33.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -9.64%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 14:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.12%E -4.09%K -20.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -10.85%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 14:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-03-08 16:24