Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cincinnati Bearcats v Texas Tech Red Raiders

Kickoff: 2026-05-14 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cincinnati Bearcats (Local)

Prediction 72.30%1.38fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -11.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.64%72.44%72.19%74.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.301.291.3379.37%77.08%77.52%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 27.70%3.61fair odd
EV +2.78%
Edge +0.749%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.80%27.56%27.81%29.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.423.403.7131.25%29.21%29.41%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cincinnati Bearcats (Local): 72.30%; Texas Tech Red Raiders (Visit): 27.70%. For Texas Tech Red Raiders (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.20%EV -6.74%E -5.22%K -23.23%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.80%EV +2.78%E +0.749%K +1.02%G +0.028%4.5%2026-05-14 21:05
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -8.18%E -6.44%K -30.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV +1.11%E +0.305%K +0.421%G +0.005%6.1%2026-05-14 20:15
BetRivers🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -8.91%E -7.07%K -34.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -0.270%E -0.075%K -0.104%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 17:50
Bally Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -8.91%E -7.07%K -34.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -0.270%E -0.075%K -0.104%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 17:50
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -8.91%E -7.07%K -34.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -0.270%E -0.075%K -0.104%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 17:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.74%E -5.22%K -23.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.04%E -0.869%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 20:19
theScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.74%E -5.22%K -23.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.04%E -0.869%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:50
Caesars🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.84%E -2.89%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -5.81%E -1.71%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-14 17:25
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.29%E -4.04%K -17.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.81%E -1.71%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 19:20
DraftKings🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.01%E -4.63%K -20.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.81%E -1.71%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-14 16:50
Bovada🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.74%E -5.22%K -23.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -5.81%E -1.71%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 19:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.74%E -5.22%K -23.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -5.81%E -1.71%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.01%EV -5.29%E -4.04%K -17.07%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.99%EV -6.64%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.01%EV -5.29%E -4.04%K -17.07%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.99%EV -6.64%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:25
BetUS🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.52%EV -5.29%E -4.04%K -17.07%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.48%EV -8.86%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-14 17:25
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.74%E -5.22%K -23.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -9.97%E -3.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-14 17:40
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.84%E -2.89%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -11.35%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 20:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.84%E -2.89%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -11.35%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 20:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.84%E -2.89%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -11.35%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 20:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.