Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

California Golden Bears v Virginia Tech Hokies

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

California Golden Bears (Local)

Prediction 58.64%1.71fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -2.71%
Kelly -7.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.88%58.67%58.67%59.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.601.611.6364.10%62.56%62.11%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit)

Prediction 41.36%2.42fair odd
EV -4.88%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -3.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.41%41.33%41.33%42.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.282.292.3045.05%43.86%43.67%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: California Golden Bears (Local): 58.64%; Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit): 41.36%. For California Golden Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.63, with an expected value of -4.41%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -4.41%E -2.71%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -7.36%E -3.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-01 18:20
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.00%E -3.08%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.88%E -2.12%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-01 08:54
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.00%E -3.08%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.95%E -3.09%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 19:45
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.88%E -2.12%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-01 09:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.71%E -2.50%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-01 15:38
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.71%E -2.50%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-01 15:39
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.71%E -2.50%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-01 15:45
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%EV -8.19%E -3.69%K -6.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-01 21:19
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.88%E -2.12%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-01 00:05
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.76%E -4.25%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.88%E -2.12%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 03:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.81%EV -6.76%E -4.25%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.19%EV -6.12%E -2.70%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 19:08
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.51%E -5.46%K -15.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.88%E -2.12%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 18:50
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.51%E -5.46%K -15.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.88%E -2.12%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 18:49
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.51%E -5.46%K -15.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.88%E -2.12%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%4.5%2026-05-01 21:05