Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cal Poly Mustangs v UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cal Poly Mustangs (Local)

Prediction 40.00%2.50fair odd

EV +1.20%

Edge +0.476%

Kelly +0.787%

Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.22%39.76%40.20%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.232.372.352.5344.84%42.25%42.55%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit)

Prediction 60.00%1.67fair odd

EV -3.40%

Edge -2.11%

Kelly -5.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.68%60.24%59.80%62.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.561.571.6166.67%64.29%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cal Poly Mustangs (Local): 40.00%; UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit): 60.00%. For Cal Poly Mustangs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV +1.20%E +0.476%K +0.787%G +0.009%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -10.00%E -6.67%K -20.00%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-02 16:35
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV +1.20%E +0.476%K +0.787%G +0.009%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -10.00%E -6.67%K -20.00%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-02 16:35
Caesars🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +0.004%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.43%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-04-02 23:29
BetUS🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +0.004%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -10.00%E -6.67%K -20.00%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-02 16:39
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -7.60%E -4.94%K -14.08%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-03 00:14
theScore Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.00%E -2.55%K -4.44%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.60%E -2.89%K -7.80%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-04-02 14:25
DraftKings🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.00%E -2.55%K -4.44%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.80%E -3.70%K -10.18%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-01 19:44
Bovada🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.00%E -2.55%K -4.44%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.43%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-02 14:15
BetMGM🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.15%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.40%E -2.11%K -5.58%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-04-02 13:24
1xBet🎯	2.29I 43.67%NM 40.83%EV -8.40%E -3.67%K -6.51%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 59.17%EV -5.20%E -3.29%K -8.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-02 16:00
BetRivers🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%EV -10.80%E -4.84%K -8.78%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -5.80%E -3.70%K -10.18%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-04-02 19:05
betPARX🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%EV -10.80%E -4.84%K -8.78%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -5.80%E -3.70%K -10.18%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-04-02 19:05
Bally Bet🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%EV -10.80%E -4.84%K -8.78%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -5.80%E -3.70%K -10.18%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-04-02 19:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%	8.5%	2026-04-03 00:50