The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cal Poly Mustangs v UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cal Poly Mustangs (Local)

Prediction 41.71%2.40fair odd
EV +0.094%
Edge +0.039%
Kelly +0.067%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.39%41.38%41.82%42.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.212.282.252.4045.25%43.89%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit)

Prediction 58.29%1.72fair odd
EV -5.56%
Edge -3.43%
Kelly -8.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.70%58.62%58.18%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.601.601.6264.10%62.53%62.50%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cal Poly Mustangs (Local): 41.71%; UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit): 58.29%. For Cal Poly Mustangs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.398. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.400, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.094%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV +0.094%E +0.039%K +0.067%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -9.06%E -5.81%K -16.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 00:24
LowVig.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -0.323%E -0.135%K -0.233%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -9.06%E -5.81%K -16.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 00:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -0.323%E -0.135%K -0.233%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -9.06%E -5.81%K -16.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 00:24
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.56%E -3.43%K -8.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-03 15:55
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.16%E -2.74%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.56%E -3.43%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-03 16:00
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.16%E -2.74%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.56%E -3.43%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-03 21:00
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.16%E -2.74%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.15%E -3.82%K -10.08%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 15:59
MyBookie.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.16%E -2.74%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 21:05
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -6.58%E -2.94%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -5.56%E -3.43%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-03 15:50
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -7.00%E -3.14%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 22:05
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -7.00%E -3.14%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 22:05
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -7.00%E -3.14%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 22:05
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.30%EV -7.83%E -3.54%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -5.56%E -3.43%K -8.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-03 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.21I 45.25%NM 41.69%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.31%8.5%2026-04-04 00:49