Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cal Poly Mustangs v UC San Diego Tritons

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cal Poly Mustangs (Local)

Prediction 61.25%1.63fair odd

EV -3.85%

Edge -2.45%

Kelly -6.75%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.61%61.19%61.25%61.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.541.541.5765.36%64.72%64.94%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC San Diego Tritons (Visit)

Prediction 38.75%2.58fair odd

EV -3.11%

Edge -1.25%

Kelly -2.08%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.35%38.81%38.75%39.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.402.442.442.5041.67%41.03%40.98%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cal Poly Mustangs (Local): 61.25%; UC San Diego Tritons (Visit): 38.75%. For UC San Diego Tritons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.50, with an expected value of -3.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -3.85%E -2.45%K -6.75%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -5.83%E -2.40%K -4.07%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-21 16:10
Caesars🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.46%E -2.86%K -7.96%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.11%E -1.25%K -2.08%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-05-21 19:09
DraftKings🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.46%E -2.86%K -7.96%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.99%E -2.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-21 13:50
Bovada🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.68%E -3.69%K -10.52%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.99%E -2.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-21 16:48
BetMGM🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.68%E -3.69%K -10.52%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.99%E -2.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-21 18:09
LowVig.ag🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.30%E -4.11%K -11.88%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -4.66%E -1.90%K -3.19%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-21 19:10
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.30%E -4.11%K -11.88%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -4.66%E -1.90%K -3.19%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-21 19:10
BetUS🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.30%E -4.11%K -11.88%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.05%E -2.06%K -3.48%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-21 19:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.