The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Cal Poly Mustangs v Long Beach State Dirtbags

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cal Poly Mustangs (Local)

Prediction 77.42%1.29fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -3.22%
Kelly -16.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.34%77.33%77.42%78.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.211.211.2484.03%82.64%82.30%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Long Beach State Dirtbags (Visit)

Prediction 22.58%4.43fair odd
EV +0.243%
Edge +0.055%
Kelly +0.071%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.55%22.67%22.58%23.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.194.224.4425.00%23.84%23.67%22.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cal Poly Mustangs (Local): 77.42%; Long Beach State Dirtbags (Visit): 22.58%. For Long Beach State Dirtbags (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.43. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.243%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.45%EV -5.54%E -4.54%K -25.20%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.55%EV +0.243%E +0.055%K +0.071%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-16 19:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -6.32%E -5.22%K -30.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -4.05%E -0.952%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 18:55
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -7.87%E -6.61%K -41.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -4.05%E -0.952%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 18:50
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -7.87%E -6.61%K -41.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -4.05%E -0.952%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 18:55
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -7.87%E -6.61%K -41.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -4.05%E -0.952%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 18:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.54%E -4.54%K -25.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 18:55
theScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.09%E -5.91%K -35.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.54%E -4.54%K -25.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 17:13
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.00%E -3.22%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 04:40
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.54%E -4.54%K -25.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 12:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.