Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baylor Bears v UTSA Roadrunners

Kickoff: 2026-04-14 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

37%

63%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baylor Bears (Local)

Prediction 36.77%2.72fair odd

EV +6.64%

Edge +2.29%

Kelly +3.50%

Growth +0.232%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.56%36.41%36.86%38.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.402.592.542.9041.67%38.66%39.37%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UTSA Roadrunners (Visit)

Prediction 63.23%1.58fair odd

EV -3.26%

Edge -2.13%

Kelly -6.16%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.52%63.59%63.14%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.481.501.5371.43%67.75%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baylor Bears (Local): 36.77%; UTSA Roadrunners (Visit): 63.23%. For Baylor Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.64%E +2.29%K +3.50%G +0.232%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.48%E -8.20%K -28.71%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-04-14 22:30
Bovada🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV +4.81%E +1.69%K +2.60%G +0.125%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -11.48%E -8.20%K -28.71%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-04-14 22:31
LowVig.ag🎯	2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -0.343%E -0.127%K -0.200%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -8.95%E -6.22%K -20.35%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-14 22:34
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -0.343%E -0.127%K -0.200%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -8.95%E -6.22%K -20.35%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-14 22:35
Caesars🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -0.711%E -0.263%K -0.418%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -6.43%E -4.34%K -13.39%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-04-14 22:35
BetUS🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -2.55%E -0.962%K -1.55%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -8.95%E -6.22%K -20.35%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-04-14 22:34
theScore Bet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.39%E -1.69%K -2.74%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.16%E -3.44%K -10.32%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-04-14 23:25
FanDuel🎯	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -6.59%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -5.16%E -3.44%K -10.32%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-14 19:39
1xBet🎯	2.51I 39.84%NM 37.25%EV -7.70%E -3.07%K -5.10%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.75%EV -5.79%E -3.89%K -11.82%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-14 23:09
BetMGM🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -9.90%E -4.04%K -6.83%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.26%E -2.13%K -6.16%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-13 23:40
BetRivers🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.90%E -4.04%K -6.83%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.16%E -3.44%K -10.32%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-14 21:39
betPARX🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.90%E -4.04%K -6.83%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.16%E -3.44%K -10.32%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-14 21:40
Bally Bet🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.90%E -4.04%K -6.83%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.16%E -3.44%K -10.32%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-14 21:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV -10.64%E -4.38%K -7.44%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -3.90%E -2.56%K -7.49%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-14 19:40
Betway🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.74%E -4.89%K -8.39%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.16%E -3.44%K -10.32%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-04-14 20:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%	5.3%	2026-04-14 23:09