Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baylor Bears v UTSA Roadrunners

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 00:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

41%

59%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baylor Bears (Local)

Prediction 41.30%2.42fair odd

EV -2.96%

Edge -1.26%

Kelly -2.19%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.05%41.47%41.39%43.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.122.262.292.3547.17%44.35%43.67%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UTSA Roadrunners (Visit)

Prediction 58.70%1.70fair odd

EV -3.14%

Edge -1.90%

Kelly -4.83%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.23%58.53%58.61%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.611.601.6563.69%62.21%62.31%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baylor Bears (Local): 41.30%; UTSA Roadrunners (Visit): 58.70%. For Baylor Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -2.96%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.96%E -1.26%K -2.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.83%E -4.99%K -13.74%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-02 00:04
BetMGM🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.96%E -1.26%K -2.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.83%E -4.99%K -13.74%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-02 00:04
Bovada🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.96%E -1.26%K -2.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.83%E -4.99%K -13.74%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-02 00:09
LowVig.ag🎯	2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -4.61%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -6.07%E -3.80%K -10.12%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-02 00:04
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -4.61%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -6.07%E -3.80%K -10.12%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-02 00:04
BetUS🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.02%E -2.18%K -3.86%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.66%E -4.19%K -11.29%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-02 00:04
FanDuel🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.85%E -2.56%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.49%E -3.41%K -8.99%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-02 00:00
theScore Bet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.09%E -3.15%K -5.67%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.90%E -3.02%K -7.90%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-01 23:59
Betway🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.15%E -4.16%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.49%E -3.41%K -8.99%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-01 23:59
BetRivers🎯	2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -12.45%E -5.87%K -11.12%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -3.14%E -1.90%K -4.83%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-02 00:04
Bally Bet🎯	2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -12.45%E -5.87%K -11.12%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -3.14%E -1.90%K -4.83%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-02 00:04
betPARX🎯	2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -12.45%E -5.87%K -11.12%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -3.14%E -1.90%K -4.83%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-02 00:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.