Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baylor Bears v Purdue Boilermakers

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baylor Bears (Local)

Prediction 70.11%1.43fair odd

EV -4.66%

Edge -3.42%

Kelly -12.94%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.81%70.11%70.48%72.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.331.331.3676.92%74.99%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Purdue Boilermakers (Visit)

Prediction 29.89%3.35fair odd

EV +0.148%

Edge +0.044%

Kelly +0.063%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.96%29.89%29.52%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.963.133.133.3533.78%31.99%32.00%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baylor Bears (Local): 70.11%; Purdue Boilermakers (Visit): 29.89%. For Purdue Boilermakers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.345. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.350, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.148%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bovada🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -8.86%E -6.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV +0.148%E +0.044%K +0.063%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-21 14:54
DraftKings🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -7.46%E -5.65%K -23.32%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -1.35%E -0.408%K -0.585%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-02-21 00:20
FanDuel🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -6.06%E -4.52%K -17.82%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-02-21 18:15
theScore Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.76%E -5.08%K -20.49%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-02-21 17:30
888sport🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.76%E -5.08%K -20.49%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-02-21 15:45
888sport (SE)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.76%E -5.08%K -20.49%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-02-21 15:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.76%E -5.08%K -20.49%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-02-21 15:45
BetRivers🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -6.06%E -4.52%K -17.82%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -8.82%E -2.89%K -4.30%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-02-21 16:30
betPARX🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -6.06%E -4.52%K -17.82%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -8.82%E -2.89%K -4.30%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-02-21 16:30
Bally Bet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -6.06%E -4.52%K -17.82%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -8.82%E -2.89%K -4.30%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-02-21 16:30
BetMGM🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.66%E -3.42%K -12.94%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-02-21 17:15
BetUS🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.66%E -3.42%K -12.94%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-02-21 18:09
Betway🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.76%E -5.08%K -20.49%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-02-21 14:19
1xBet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -7.46%E -5.65%K -23.32%G +0.000%	2.96I 33.78%NM 30.84%EV -11.51%E -3.89%K -5.87%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-02-21 17:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.