Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.11
assuming max odds 8.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arkansas Razorbacks (Local): 87.78%; UT-Arlington Mavericks (Visit): 12.22%. For UT-Arlington Mavericks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.91%.
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -6.96%E -6.56%K -115.97%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +3.91%E +0.460%K +0.521%G +0.020% | 6.1% | 2026-03-01 16:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -7.84%E -7.46%K -156.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV +3.91%E +0.460%K +0.521%G +0.020% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 16:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.96%E -6.56%K -115.97%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -2.20%E -0.276%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-01 16:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.96%E -6.56%K -115.97%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -2.20%E -0.276%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-01 16:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.96%E -6.56%K -115.97%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -2.20%E -0.276%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-01 16:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -7.84%E -7.46%K -156.71%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -2.20%E -0.276%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-01 16:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -7.84%E -7.46%K -156.71%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -2.20%E -0.276%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-01 16:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -7.84%E -7.46%K -156.71%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -2.20%E -0.276%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-01 16:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.20%E -4.82%K -65.03%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -8.32%E -1.11%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-01 16:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -5.20%E -4.82%K -65.03%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -11.37%E -1.57%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-01 15:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -4.32%E -3.97%K -48.05%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -14.43%E -2.06%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-01 14:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.08%E -5.68%K -86.86%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -14.43%E -2.06%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-01 16:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -2.57%E -2.31%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -17.48%E -2.59%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-01 14:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.30%EV -6.96%E -6.56%K -115.97%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 14.70%EV -24.82%E -4.04%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-01 16:39 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.