Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas Razorbacks v UT-Arlington Mavericks

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

88%

12%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas Razorbacks (Local)

Prediction 87.76%1.14fair odd

EV -3.47%

Edge -3.15%

Kelly -34.67%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

85.91%87.74%87.94%89.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.051.061.061.1095.24%93.96%94.34%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UT-Arlington Mavericks (Visit)

Prediction 12.24%8.17fair odd

EV +4.06%

Edge +0.478%

Kelly +0.541%

Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.99%12.26%12.06%14.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.407.678.008.5015.63%13.03%12.50%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arkansas Razorbacks (Local): 87.76%; UT-Arlington Mavericks (Visit): 12.24%. For UT-Arlington Mavericks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -7.85%E -7.48%K -157.09%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV +4.06%E +0.478%K +0.541%G +0.022%	7.0%	2026-02-27 16:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.10%E -5.70%K -87.13%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -2.06%E -0.258%K -0.295%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-02-27 16:09
888sport🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.98%E -6.58%K -116.28%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -2.06%E -0.258%K -0.295%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-27 16:10
888sport (SE)🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.98%E -6.58%K -116.28%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -2.06%E -0.258%K -0.295%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-27 16:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.98%E -6.58%K -116.28%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -2.06%E -0.258%K -0.295%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-27 16:10
Bally Bet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -7.85%E -7.48%K -157.09%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -2.06%E -0.258%K -0.295%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-27 16:04
betPARX🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -7.85%E -7.48%K -157.09%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -2.06%E -0.258%K -0.295%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-27 16:04
BetRivers🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -7.85%E -7.48%K -157.09%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -2.06%E -0.258%K -0.295%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-27 16:04
FanDuel🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.94%EV -6.10%E -5.70%K -87.13%G +0.000%	7.80I 12.82%NM 12.06%EV -4.51%E -0.578%K -0.663%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-02-27 18:29
BetMGM🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.22%E -4.83%K -65.27%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -8.18%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-02-27 15:44
Bovada🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -5.22%E -4.83%K -65.27%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -11.24%E -1.55%K -1.80%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-02-27 19:39
DraftKings🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.47%E -3.15%K -34.67%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -14.30%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-02-27 19:34
Betway🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.10%E -5.70%K -87.13%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -14.30%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-27 16:09
1xBet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 85.91%EV -7.85%E -7.48%K -157.09%G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63%NM 14.09%EV -21.65%E -3.38%K -4.01%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-02-27 19:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.