Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas Razorbacks v Missouri St Bears

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas Razorbacks (Local)

Prediction 62.76%1.59fair odd

EV +1.05%

Edge +0.650%

Kelly +1.72%

Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.82%62.82%62.66%65.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.501.501.6168.97%66.74%66.67%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Missouri St Bears (Visit)

Prediction 37.24%2.69fair odd

EV +4.27%

Edge +1.52%

Kelly +2.37%

Growth +0.101%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.12%37.18%37.34%41.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.522.502.8043.48%39.65%40.00%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arkansas Razorbacks (Local): 62.76%; Missouri St Bears (Visit): 37.24%. For Missouri St Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -8.99%E -6.20%K -19.99%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +4.27%E +1.52%K +2.37%G +0.101%	4.7%	2026-04-21 22:54
LowVig.ag🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.81%EV -8.99%E -6.20%K -19.99%G +0.000%	2.67I 37.45%NM 35.19%EV -0.575%E -0.215%K -0.344%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-21 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.81%EV -8.99%E -6.20%K -19.99%G +0.000%	2.67I 37.45%NM 35.19%EV -0.575%E -0.215%K -0.344%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-21 22:45
BetUS🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -8.99%E -6.20%K -19.99%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.18%E -1.22%K -1.99%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-04-21 22:44
FanDuel🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.39%EV -6.48%E -4.35%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.58I 38.76%NM 36.61%EV -3.93%E -1.52%K -2.49%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-04-21 22:50
theScore Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.97%E -2.60%K -7.50%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.60%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-04-21 22:50
DraftKings🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.23%E -3.46%K -10.25%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.60%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-21 19:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.23%E -3.46%K -10.25%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.60%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-21 22:45
888sport🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.86%E -3.90%K -11.71%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.60%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-21 20:35
888sport (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.86%E -3.90%K -11.71%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.60%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-21 20:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.86%E -3.90%K -11.71%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.60%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-21 20:35
BetRivers🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.11%E -4.81%K -14.82%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.60%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-21 18:44
Bally Bet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.11%E -4.81%K -14.82%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.60%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-21 18:45
betPARX🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.11%E -4.81%K -14.82%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.91%E -2.76%K -4.60%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-21 18:45
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -5.86%E -3.90%K -11.71%G +0.000%	2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -8.02%E -3.25%K -5.46%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-04-21 22:50
Bovada🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.97%E -2.60%K -7.50%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-21 19:01
1xBet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.36%EV -2.72%E -1.75%K -4.94%G +0.000%	2.36I 42.37%NM 39.64%EV -12.12%E -5.14%K -8.91%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-21 20:15
BetMGM🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV +1.05%E +0.650%K +1.72%G +0.018%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -14.35%E -6.24%K -11.04%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-04-21 01:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.41%	2.59I 38.61%NM 37.59%	2.7%	2026-04-21 22:50