Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans v UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

44%

56%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (Local)

Prediction 44.45%2.25fair odd

EV -4.44%

Edge -2.07%

Kelly -3.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.01%44.45%44.45%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.102.092.1548.78%47.68%47.73%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit)

Prediction 55.55%1.80fair odd

EV -3.34%

Edge -1.92%

Kelly -4.51%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.09%55.55%55.55%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.691.711.701.7459.17%58.57%58.82%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (Local): 44.45%; UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit): 55.55%. For UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -3.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.44%E -2.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.11%E -3.62%K -8.86%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-04-21 15:30
DraftKings🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.00%E -2.93%K -7.05%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-21 15:04
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.09I 47.85%NM 44.71%EV -7.11%E -3.40%K -6.52%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.29%EV -6.11%E -3.62%K -8.86%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-21 17:19
Bovada🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.89%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.34%E -1.92%K -4.51%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-21 15:06

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.