Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona Wildcats v New Mexico St Aggies

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 73.11%1.37fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -10.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.67%73.05%73.03%76.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.281.281.3281.97%78.28%78.13%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Mexico St Aggies (Visit)

Prediction 26.89%3.72fair odd
EV +8.91%
Edge +2.20%
Kelly +2.92%
Growth +0.261%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.15%26.95%26.97%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.183.523.524.0531.45%28.40%28.41%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arizona Wildcats (Local): 73.11%; New Mexico St Aggies (Visit): 26.89%. For New Mexico St Aggies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -10.81%E -8.86%K -49.13%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV +8.91%E +2.20%K +2.92%G +0.261%6.7%2026-04-08 22:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.70%EV -7.88%E -6.26%K -30.32%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.30%EV +0.039%E +0.011%K +0.014%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-09 01:00
theScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.499%E -0.135%K -0.185%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 00:59
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.15%E -5.63%K -26.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -1.84%E -0.505%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-09 00:59
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.19%E -0.885%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-08 16:45
Bally Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.19%E -0.885%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-08 16:45
betPARX🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.19%E -0.885%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-08 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.29%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.62%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.71%EV -4.80%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 00:54
Caesars🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.23%E -3.23%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 00:54
1xBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -7.15%E -5.63%K -26.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 23:14
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.23%E -3.23%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-08 13:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-08 19:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.14%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.62%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.86%EV -10.18%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-08 23:53
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -3.50%E -2.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-08 01:04
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -12.60%E -3.88%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-08 15:39
BetUS🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.67%EV -3.50%E -2.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -14.48%E -4.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-08 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.