Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama St Hornets v Grambling St Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama St Hornets (Local)

Prediction 39.79%2.51fair odd

EV -5.29%

Edge -2.22%

Kelly -3.83%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.43%39.79%39.59%40.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.352.362.352.3842.55%42.42%42.55%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grambling St Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 60.21%1.66fair odd

EV -4.27%

Edge -2.69%

Kelly -7.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.64%60.21%60.41%60.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.561.561.5965.36%64.10%64.10%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alabama St Hornets (Local): 39.79%; Grambling St Tigers (Visit): 60.21%. For Grambling St Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.59, with an expected value of -4.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -5.29%E -2.22%K -3.83%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -6.08%E -3.90%K -10.85%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-02-21 16:20
theScore Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.48%E -2.76%K -4.80%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.27%E -2.69%K -7.24%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-02-21 16:20
Bovada🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.48%E -2.76%K -4.80%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.08%E -3.90%K -10.85%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-02-21 16:44
Betway🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -6.48%E -2.76%K -4.80%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.88%E -5.15%K -14.88%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-02-21 16:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.