Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama St Hornets v Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama St Hornets (Local)

Prediction 55.02%1.82fair odd

EV -5.92%

Edge -3.46%

Kelly -8.34%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.81%55.02%55.12%55.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.681.701.691.7159.52%58.96%59.17%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (Visit)

Prediction 44.98%2.22fair odd

EV -5.53%

Edge -2.64%

Kelly -5.03%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.59%44.98%44.88%45.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.082.102.1048.78%48.03%47.62%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alabama St Hornets (Local): 55.02%; Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (Visit): 44.98%. For Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -5.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.92%E -3.46%K -8.34%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.53%E -2.64%K -5.03%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-22 12:50
theScore Bet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.92%E -3.46%K -8.34%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.53%E -2.64%K -5.03%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-22 13:50
Bovada🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.02%E -4.16%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.53%E -2.64%K -5.03%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-22 13:19
Betway🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.02%E -4.16%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.78%E -3.80%K -7.41%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-22 13:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -7.57%E -4.51%K -11.14%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -7.33%E -3.56%K -6.92%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-22 13:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.