Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Air Force Falcons v Utah Valley Wolverines

Kickoff: 2026-04-13 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Air Force Falcons (Local)

Prediction 67.90%1.47fair odd

EV -3.59%

Edge -2.53%

Kelly -8.54%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.35%68.29%67.51%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.321.371.371.4275.76%72.73%72.99%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Utah Valley Wolverines (Visit)

Prediction 32.10%3.11fair odd

EV +5.94%

Edge +1.80%

Kelly +2.58%

Growth +0.153%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.57%31.71%32.49%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.802.972.963.3035.71%33.64%33.73%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Air Force Falcons (Local): 67.90%; Utah Valley Wolverines (Visit): 32.10%. For Utah Valley Wolverines (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -10.38%E -7.86%K -32.42%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV +5.94%E +1.80%K +2.58%G +0.153%	6.1%	2026-04-13 20:55
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.66%E -5.63%K -21.28%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.69%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-13 16:30
Betway🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.70%E -7.29%K -29.38%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -3.69%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-04-13 16:29
1xBet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -7.66%E -5.63%K -21.28%G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56%NM 31.34%EV -4.33%E -1.45%K -2.19%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-13 20:00
Caesars🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.59%E -2.53%K -8.54%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-04-13 15:49
Bovada🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.30%E -4.57%K -16.58%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.90%E -2.38%K -3.63%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-13 00:33
DraftKings🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.27%E -3.02%K -10.40%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -8.51%E -2.98%K -4.60%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-12 23:19
theScore Bet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.59%E -2.53%K -8.54%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.11%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-13 17:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.