The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Washington Nationals v St. Louis Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Prediction 49.18%2.03fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.30%49.24%48.95%50.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.931.931.9853.48%51.84%51.81%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 50.82%1.97fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.998%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.34%50.76%51.05%51.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.871.871.9354.64%53.43%53.48%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Nationals (Local): 49.18%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visit): 50.82%. For St. Louis Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.93, with an expected value of -1.93%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -2.62%E -1.32%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -5.99%E -3.24%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -2.62%E -1.32%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -5.99%E -3.24%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 16:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -2.62%E -1.32%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -5.99%E -3.24%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 16:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.09%E -2.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.97%E -2.66%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-11 14:19
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.09%E -2.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.97%E -2.66%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-11 14:20
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.09%E -2.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.97%E -2.66%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-11 16:30
FanDuel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.58%E -2.36%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.47%E -2.38%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-11 14:19
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -5.07%E -2.63%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -2.43%E -1.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-11 16:50
Bovada🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.07%E -2.63%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.47%E -2.38%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 16:54
MyBookie.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.07%E -2.63%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.47%E -2.38%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 14:24
BetAnything🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.07%E -2.63%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.47%E -2.38%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 16:30
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.06%E -3.17%K -6.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.94%E -1.54%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-11 16:29
ReBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.06%E -3.17%K -6.66%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.01%E -3.83%K -8.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 16:10
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.06%E -3.17%K -6.66%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.01%E -3.83%K -8.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 16:24
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.06%E -3.17%K -6.66%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.01%E -3.83%K -8.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 15:05
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -7.53%E -4.01%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.93%E -0.998%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 15:00
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -7.53%E -4.01%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.93%E -0.998%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 15:00
Fliff🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -8.03%E -4.29%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -7.01%E -3.83%K -8.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-11 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-03-11 17:00
ProphetX◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77%2.1%2026-03-11 15:44
Novig◎1.99I 50.25%NM 48.58%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.42%3.4%2026-03-11 16:55