The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Prediction 50.50%1.98fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.34%50.53%50.52%51.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.881.871.9454.95%53.30%53.48%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Miami Marlins (Visit)

Prediction 49.50%2.02fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.43%49.47%49.48%50.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.911.911.9753.48%52.28%52.36%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Nationals (Local): 50.50%; Miami Marlins (Visit): 49.50%. For Washington Nationals (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.98. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.94, with an expected value of -2.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -2.02%E -1.04%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -5.46%E -2.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-18 21:50
Bovada🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -2.53%E -1.31%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -6.45%E -3.41%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-18 21:39
MyBookie.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -2.53%E -1.31%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -6.95%E -3.69%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 20:40
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.54%E -1.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.46%E -2.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-18 21:14
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.54%E -1.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.46%E -2.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-18 07:42
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.54%E -1.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.46%E -2.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-18 13:40
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.54%E -1.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.46%E -2.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-18 12:19
FanDuel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.55%E -2.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -4.47%E -2.32%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-18 07:48
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.56%E -2.97%K -6.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.48%E -1.78%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-18 01:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.56%E -2.97%K -6.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.48%E -1.78%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-18 16:09
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.56%E -2.97%K -6.39%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.44%E -3.98%K -8.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-18 12:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -6.57%E -3.55%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -2.49%E -1.26%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-18 20:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -6.57%E -3.55%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -2.49%E -1.26%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-18 20:25
ReBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.58%E -4.14%K -9.13%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.46%E -2.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-18 21:05
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.58%E -4.14%K -9.13%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.46%E -2.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-18 15:34
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -7.58%E -4.14%K -9.13%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -7.44%E -3.98%K -8.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-18 12:54
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%EV -8.08%E -4.44%K -9.86%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.06%EV -6.45%E -3.41%K -7.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-18 18:10
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%EV -8.08%E -4.44%K -9.86%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.06%EV -6.45%E -3.41%K -7.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-18 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.1%2026-03-18 21:55
Novig◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%2.6%2026-03-18 21:25
ProphetX◎1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%2.6%2026-03-18 21:45