The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Prediction 53.06%1.88fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -3.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.35%52.69%55.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.791.811.8357.47%55.74%55.40%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Miami Marlins (Visit)

Prediction 46.94%2.13fair odd
EV +1.86%
Edge +0.857%
Kelly +1.59%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.50%46.65%47.31%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.012.1751.28%49.31%49.75%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Nationals (Local): 53.06%; Miami Marlins (Visit): 46.94%. For Miami Marlins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.17, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.50%EV -7.68%E -4.41%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.50%EV +1.86%E +0.857%K +1.59%G +0.030%3.6%2026-03-01 17:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.08%E -3.44%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.43%E -0.679%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-01 17:54
DraftKings🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.43%E -1.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.18%E -2.57%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-01 17:10
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.96%E -2.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.18%E -2.57%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 16:39
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.96%E -2.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.18%E -2.57%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 16:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.90%E -1.58%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.12%E -3.06%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-01 17:04
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.43%E -1.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.12%E -3.06%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-01 16:18
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.49%E -2.50%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.12%E -3.06%K -6.12%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 16:14
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.08%E -3.44%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.12%E -3.06%K -6.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 17:54
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -6.08%E -3.44%K -7.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -8.47%E -4.34%K -8.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-01 17:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-03-01 17:29
Novig◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.30%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.70%2.2%2026-03-01 18:00