The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Washington Nationals v Houston Astros

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Prediction 42.89%2.33fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.974%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.20%42.95%42.84%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.222.222.2847.62%45.12%45.05%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Astros (Visit)

Prediction 57.11%1.75fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -3.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%57.05%57.16%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.681.691.7162.11%59.50%59.17%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Nationals (Local): 42.89%; Houston Astros (Visit): 57.11%. For Washington Nationals (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.28, with an expected value of -2.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -2.22%E -0.974%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -4.62%E -2.77%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-08 16:59
Bovada🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.24%EV -2.65%E -1.17%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.76%EV -5.19%E -3.13%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 16:47
FanDuel🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -3.08%E -1.36%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -5.76%E -3.49%K -8.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 15:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.51%E -1.56%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.48%E -2.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-08 15:29
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.51%E -1.56%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.76%E -3.49%K -8.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.79%E -2.16%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -2.91%E -1.71%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 16:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.79%E -2.16%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -2.91%E -1.71%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 16:44
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.33%E -1.37%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 15:55
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.91%E -1.71%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 16:44
Fliff🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.65%E -2.57%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.05%E -5.00%K -13.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 15:30
Caesars🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -6.51%E -2.99%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -2.33%E -1.37%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-08 15:54
MyBookie.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -6.51%E -2.99%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -3.48%E -2.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 16:43
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.94%E -4.73%K -9.04%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.33%E -1.37%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-03-08 15:50
Novig◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%3.4%2026-03-08 16:49