The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Washington Nationals v Baltimore Orioles

Kickoff: 2026-03-23 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Prediction 43.22%2.31fair odd
EV -0.587%
Edge -0.255%
Kelly -0.451%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%43.25%43.15%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.202.3047.62%45.33%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Baltimore Orioles (Visit)

Prediction 56.78%1.76fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.694%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%56.75%56.85%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.681.681.7462.11%59.50%59.52%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Nationals (Local): 43.22%; Baltimore Orioles (Visit): 56.78%. For Washington Nationals (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -0.587%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.587%E -0.255%K -0.451%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.18%E -3.10%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-23 14:50
MyBookie.ag🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -1.88%E -0.830%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -6.89%E -4.20%K -10.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-23 14:54
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.75%E -1.22%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-23 14:50
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.75%E -1.22%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.02%E -4.95%K -12.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-23 14:50
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -3.18%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -4.05%E -2.39%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-23 16:50
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.18%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.61%E -2.75%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-23 15:54
Bovada🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.61%E -1.62%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.61%E -2.75%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-23 16:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.91%E -2.23%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.91%E -1.70%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-23 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.91%E -2.23%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.91%E -1.70%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-23 16:55
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.91%E -2.23%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.91%E -1.70%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-23 16:55
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.91%E -2.23%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.61%E -2.75%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-23 14:49
ReBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.91%E -2.23%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.59%E -5.33%K -14.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-23 16:09
BetRivers🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -6.64%E -3.07%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -2.91%E -1.70%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-23 16:45
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -6.64%E -3.07%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -2.91%E -1.70%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-23 16:45
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -7.07%E -3.29%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.21%E -0.694%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-23 15:55
Fliff🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.07%E -3.29%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-23 17:00
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.23%E -4.40%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.91%E -1.70%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-23 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-03-23 17:00
Novig◎2.25I 44.44%NM 43.75%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.25%1.6%2026-03-23 16:39
ProphetX◎2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%3.3%2026-03-23 17:00