The School of Odds
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Toronto Blue Jays v Tampa Bay Rays

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 17:07 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Blue Jays (Local)

Prediction 61.62%1.62fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -3.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.95%61.58%61.43%62.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.551.561.5965.79%64.38%64.10%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Rays (Visit)

Prediction 38.38%2.61fair odd
EV -0.981%
Edge -0.380%
Kelly -0.621%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.16%38.42%38.57%40.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.482.502.5842.55%40.27%40.08%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Blue Jays (Local): 61.62%; Tampa Bay Rays (Visit): 38.38%. For Tampa Bay Rays (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.58, with an expected value of -0.981%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.02%E -1.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 16:43
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.26%E -2.07%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -4.05%E -1.62%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 13:44
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -3.26%E -2.07%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -7.12%E -2.94%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 16:45
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.26%E -2.07%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.81%E -4.17%K -7.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 16:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.87%E -2.48%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -1.36%E -0.531%K -0.869%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.87%E -2.48%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -1.36%E -0.531%K -0.869%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 16:45
BetAnything🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.87%E -2.48%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -2.13%E -0.836%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-22 16:44
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.87%E -2.48%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.05%E -1.62%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 16:45
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.87%E -2.48%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 16:45
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.87%E -2.48%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 12:05
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.87%E -2.48%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 12:04
ReBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -3.87%E -2.48%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.81%E -4.17%K -7.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 16:44
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -5.10%E -3.31%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -2.52%E -0.990%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-22 16:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -5.10%E -3.31%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -4.43%E -1.78%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 16:43
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -5.72%E -3.74%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -0.981%E -0.380%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 16:44
Fliff🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.72%E -3.74%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 16:44
Bovada🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.84%EV -6.34%E -4.17%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.16%EV -1.36%E -0.531%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -6.34%E -4.17%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -1.75%E -0.683%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-03-22 16:45
Novig◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.10%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.90%2.3%2026-03-22 16:50
ProphetX◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.50%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.50%2.3%2026-03-22 16:55