The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Toronto Blue Jays v New York Mets

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 18:07 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Blue Jays (Local)

Prediction 62.61%1.60fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -4.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.10%62.45%62.65%63.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.531.531.5666.23%65.23%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 37.39%2.67fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.83%37.55%37.35%38.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.532.542.6040.82%39.46%39.45%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Blue Jays (Local): 62.61%; New York Mets (Visit): 37.39%. For Toronto Blue Jays (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.56, with an expected value of -2.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -2.32%E -1.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -3.91%E -1.52%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-23 17:40
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.32%E -1.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.53%E -2.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-23 17:40
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -2.32%E -1.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -8.40%E -3.43%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-23 18:00
betPARX🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.58%E -2.32%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.53%E -2.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-23 18:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.20%E -2.75%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.79%E -1.07%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-23 17:35
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.20%E -2.75%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.53%E -2.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-23 17:35
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.83%E -3.18%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.79%E -1.07%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-23 15:14
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.17%EV -5.46%E -3.61%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.83%EV -3.17%E -1.22%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-23 17:55
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -5.46%E -3.61%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -3.54%E -1.37%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-23 17:35
Fliff🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -5.46%E -3.61%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.40%E -3.43%K -5.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-23 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.