The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 17:07 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Blue Jays (Local)

Prediction 53.35%1.87fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.55%53.25%55.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.771.791.8058.48%56.50%55.87%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Baltimore Orioles (Visit)

Prediction 46.65%2.14fair odd
EV +0.754%
Edge +0.349%
Kelly +0.650%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.33%46.45%46.75%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.052.1651.28%48.91%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Blue Jays (Local): 53.35%; Baltimore Orioles (Visit): 46.65%. For Baltimore Orioles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.754%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.67%EV -8.23%E -4.78%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.33%EV +0.754%E +0.349%K +0.650%G +0.005%4.4%2026-03-18 16:38
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV +0.288%E +0.134%K +0.250%G +0.001%3.7%2026-03-18 17:05
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.56%E -3.14%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -3.91%E -1.90%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 15:24
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.96%E -2.20%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.38%E -2.14%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-18 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.96%E -2.20%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.38%E -2.14%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-18 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.96%E -2.20%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.38%E -2.14%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-18 16:55
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.96%E -2.20%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.38%E -2.14%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-18 16:59
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.96%E -2.20%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.38%E -2.14%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-18 16:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.96%E -2.20%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.38%E -2.14%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-18 15:24
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.96%E -2.20%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.38%E -2.14%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-18 14:33
MyBookie.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.03%E -2.83%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.38%E -2.14%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 14:34
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -8.76%E -5.12%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -4.84%E -2.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-18 15:39
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -8.76%E -5.12%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -4.84%E -2.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-18 15:40
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.96%E -2.20%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.71%E -3.35%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-18 14:49
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.56%E -3.14%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.71%E -3.35%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-18 15:34
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.16%E -4.12%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.71%E -3.35%K -6.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-18 16:09
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.76%E -5.12%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -6.71%E -3.35%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-18 16:55
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.96%E -2.20%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.04%E -4.64%K -9.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-18 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.29%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.71%1.8%2026-03-18 17:00
Novig◎1.78I 56.18%NM 54.71%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.29%2.7%2026-03-18 17:00
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.36%3.2%2026-03-18 17:05