The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Tampa Bay Rays v Pittsburgh Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Rays (Local)

Prediction 54.73%1.83fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.827%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%54.64%54.70%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.751.761.8059.17%57.20%56.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 45.27%2.21fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.01%45.36%45.30%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.092.1550.00%47.81%47.85%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Rays (Local): 54.73%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit): 45.27%. For Tampa Bay Rays (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -1.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.49%E -0.827%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.19%E -3.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-15 15:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.49%E -0.827%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.19%E -3.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-15 15:55
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.49%E -0.827%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.19%E -3.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-15 15:55
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24%EV -2.58%E -1.45%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.76%EV -4.48%E -2.12%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-15 16:50
BetAnything🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -2.58%E -1.45%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -5.84%E -2.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-15 16:05
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.13%E -1.77%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.46%E -4.73%K -9.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 16:04
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -3.68%E -2.09%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -5.38%E -2.58%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 17:00
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.68%E -2.09%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.84%E -2.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-15 17:00
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.68%E -2.09%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.84%E -2.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-15 17:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.77%E -2.74%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.67%E -1.24%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-15 11:10
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.77%E -2.74%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.12%E -1.46%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-15 15:29
MyBookie.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -4.77%E -2.74%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -4.48%E -2.12%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-15 15:35
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.41%E -3.75%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.67%E -1.24%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 02:25
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -6.41%E -3.75%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -4.03%E -1.90%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-15 11:40
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.51%E -4.44%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.67%E -1.24%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-15 14:00
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.51%E -4.44%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -4.93%E -2.35%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 16:10
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.51%E -4.44%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.19%E -3.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50%1.2%2026-03-15 17:00
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 54.77%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%1.4%2026-03-15 16:55
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%1.9%2026-03-15 17:00